Trader’s Traits

1. Overcome fear – you must master your fear to trade well 
2. Remain flexible – don’t paint your self into a corner by overcommitting emotionally 
3. Take reasoned risks – bet smart so you can survive a long series of losses 
4. Prepare to be wrong – know what you will do before the market says you are wrong 
5. Actively seek reality – don’t look for why you are right, look for why you are wrong 
6. Respond quickly to change – don’t wait around when the trade is bad 
7. Focus on decisions, not outcomes – good decisions often lead to bad outcomes in trading, it’s part of the game

Million Dollars

If you have a million dollars and make 10% a year, you can walk home with a 100k a year income. And making 10% a year or just under 1% a month is not terribly tough. With 5k, you need to make a 2000% return to make the same money. Not going to happen. The guy that makes 10% a year takes very little risk and enjoys a nice income. The guy with 5k has to shoot for the moon every day, live under an incredible amount of stress and his odds of success are slim to none.

Best Of The Best

The very best of the best require a level of focus and discipline that most people quite frankly don't have. Sure, you can have guys grinding away inconsistently at opening orders or pair trading but how much are they really making and how consistent are they really? To make it into the top 1% or 5% for that matter, it takes a lot of mistakes and a lot of bad trades. There is no way around this. There is no magic book, course, indicator, strategy that has the magic pill. It takes something that most people just don't have. There are no secrets in this business except hard work, patience and discipline. Leverage is meaningless to a trader who is not profitable. Having leverage is great for consistently profitable traders. For guys that are net negative, all leverage does is leverage your losses.

Maximize Profits Not The Trades

1. Maximize Your Profits, Not the Number of Trades. 
2. Don't Risk More Than 1-3% of the Capital. 
3. Be Patient Enough to Wait for Good Trades. 
4. Be Patient Enough to Avoid Closing a Profitable Position Too Early. 
5. Don't Tie Yourself Down with Your First-Blush Opinion About a Position. 
6. Immediately Close Your Position When the Initial Conditions Are Disrupted. 
7. Make a Decision About the Stop Level Before Entering a Position. 
8. Cut Losses Early, Protect Profits with Trailing Stops. 
9. Return to a Trend if Your Previous Assumptions Turn Out to Be Wrong and the Trend is Progressing. 
10. Focus on Big Market Moves. Don't Try to Catch Small, Noisy Fluctuations. 
11. Focus on Price Patterns and Formations Rather than the Price Levels or Support-Resistance Levels. 
12. Make Your Own Trading Plan. 
13. Your Trading Method Should Be in Sync with Your Personality. 
14. Maintain Discipline to Be Able to Strictly Follow Your Plan and Manage Risks. 
15. It Is Only You Who Is Responsible for Your Trading Results. Don't Try to Blame the Market, Your Friends and Brokers, and so on.

Trading & Golf

All trades start with a directional opinion and/or a volatility assumption. Where has the stock and implied volatility been and where might they be going? Take it slowly. Walk before you run. An analogy to playing a hole in golf: Remember that if you take a triple bogie on a hole, there are still a lot more left to birdie. Don't get discouraged and upset your inner game.
1. Line up your shot and take your stance (get a hunch). 
2. Drive the ball (Put on your play or spread). 
3. Go to where you hit the ball in order to plan your next shot (after some time or a market move, assess the situation).
4. Hit it again (adjust, exit or stay with it).
There is no need to wonder anything until you get to the ball. (Until you get to know your trading self, learn. Don't worry about the strategy until your time horizon expires or your price targets or exit points have been met). Each time, assess your lie and your view to the pin. You are going to slice, hook and fall into traps so keep your exposure low until you can rely on your own experience and abilities (not the golf book or video) to get you back on course.

Leverage

Newbies often feel there is an "edge" in the selection of the product they are trading. The fact of the matter is, it really comes down to edge. You either have one or you don't. The product is pointless. What usually kills guys in futures and FX is leverage. Not the product itself. You give stock guys super leverage and they blow out just as fast as futures guys. There is no "strategy" for making money. One has to develop the "skill" to become a good trader. Just as one cannot learn a magical way to throw a football to become like Tom Brady. One has to develop the "skill" of a Tom Brady.

No Questions. Only Answers

It is always bad news when you do not carry out your plan, even if you save money, because you are losing control of yourself. You may have saved money for today but what about what may be on the heels of that trade over the next few days? It is twice as bad when you do the opposite of what you have planned because you can really get into trouble and lose your confidence. It might be a good time to do a post mortem on your experiences. 
What are you good at?
What are you not so good at?
What have you done right?
What have you done wrong?
What works?
What doesn't?
Revise your set of trading rules and follow them to a tee. Be a machine. Have no emotion, no frustration. It is hard to do that but it is a goal to attain for long term trading success. The plan is to trade in a fashion that will keep you safe until you become a fully established trader. You will know that when, all of a sudden, you have no more questions and only answers that you will probably be unwilling to share.

Luck

We tend to over complicate things too much. The whole idea of theta and gamma and vega is really pointless in the understanding of options. The reason those greeks exist is to manage very large complicated positions that can't be broken down easily by dissecting out synthetics. When you make a simple option trade, you are making a probability bet. No strategy is any better or worse than the other. Luck plays a huge role over the long run in this profession. If you have a strategy with large amounts of risk, sooner or later, bad luck will get you. There is nothing we can do about this. And the inverse of that is true. No matter how bad of a trader you are and you could be the worst trader on earth, if you have a position with huge upside potential, sooner or later, you will trip over some good luck and make a fortune. There are many stories like this in the floor where guys made millions on trades there were merely mistakes on their part and they left the floor to retire. Making money does not in and of itself justify the strategy. No more than someone who cheats on their wife and never gets caught. Look, I could sell naked puts in the NDX every month 200 pts OTM for .05 and .10. This strategy would produce a terrific track record over let’s say 5 to 10 years. Hell I might be able to go 300 pts out. People who do not know what I am doing will call me a god. A natural, the next Soros, how does he do it. The guy never loses! But the day will come when I not only blow out my account but probably my broker and perhaps my clearing firm as well. Now the trick is how long I can push my luck. What if I just did this for 5 years? What are the chances, what are the odds? Will I get away with it? This is not trading. But to an outsider, this guy looks like the greatest trader ever.

85% Attitude 15% Aptitude

There is a saying - You don’t trade markets/stocks. You trade your belief about stocks. Trading is all about managing our volatile emotions. And most of the times, they are more volatile than market. A study attributed to Harvard University found that Success = 85% attitude and 15% aptitude. The same applies to Trading, success = 85% managing emotions and 15% application of methods. No one is underplaying the importance of method. But people make/lose money not by method but by managing emotions. A good method is a must and can be a pre-requisite but not a guarantee of success. Trading successfully is not about having a right system but a right mind set in place. That is why despite having all the great trading systems available in the market, success is difficult to achieve. It all boils down to controlling emotional anxiety. Trading is a psychological game; the market is not “against the trader”, only the trader’s emotions are an opponent….if not controlled properly. There are two things one should do to control the emotions
1. One should not have any emotional bias about the market direction….because bias corrupts your mind and you always look for the direction you are looking for and ignore the price action on the screen.
2. Respect the trend i.e. look for trade setups in the direction of the broader trend. You can either be neutral or trade in the direction of the trend.
Remember, market does not care what you think. Market will do what it has to do and will do in the least obvious way. As a market watcher, observe the price action and visualize what it wants to do and if it confirms to what you visualize, profit from it. Good judgments are easy to make after the fact, but it is difficult to make the right decision in the heat of the moment. Hence trading success hinges on how you process your beliefs in real time when market moves from one phase to another. It requires lot of controlled behavior. The game is how one can protect oneself from getting into panic mode and also not let euphoria take over. Remember, Trading is the game of mistakes and emotions. It always has been and will always be. The trick is how you learn and don’t repeat the same mistakes again and again.

Trend Following

Every strategy in the world has its pros and cons. Long gamma traders bleed in many cases every month only to have big home runs once or twice a year that make their numbers. On the other hand, short gamma traders make money consistently month after month after month, but then have one bad trade that could wipe out all their profits. Neither strategy is better or worse than the other. It has more to do with what the trader is comfortable with. Some guys could never withstand the unbearable pain of watching their positions bleed month after month in the hopes of the big hit. While other traders would never be able to sleep at night with the possibility of a large move wiping them out. It all comes down to what you are comfortable with. The same is true for trend following funds and arb funds and long/short equity funds. The trend following funds can offer several consecutive years of 40% to 80% returns. But then they can have periods with 2 to 4 years when their funds chop and churn. Arb fund can give consistent 10% to 15% returns but one fixed income spread that goes the wrong way and the fund is suddenly down 50% with no way to re-coup the losses. Will trends continue in the future? Of course they will. They have for 500 years. The harder it becomes to stay in the trend, the more reward there will be for those that do. The numbers don't lie. Most trend followers do not buy the highs; they buy the pullbacks or in the case of short positions, sell the bounces. Trend following is not the same as momentum trading and buying breakouts.

And trend followers do not have "RISK" levels. They wait until the trend has been broken. In fact, their risk is quite the opposite. Their risk is not directional risk, but rather non-directional risk. In other words, their returns will suffer the most from chop, not from being wrong about the direction of the trend. And there is no "HOPE" factor. It's actually very mathematical. You stay long or short the trend until the trend has been broken. No emotion, no hope, no hype. There is far more hope from long gamma and short gamma option traders then there is among trend followers. Hell, even the arbitrage players go to sleep every night hoping their deals don't fall through or hoping some statistical anomaly doesn't wipe them out. Usually all it takes is a small 100 basis pt move to completely blow up a highly leveraged arbitrage fund. Trend followers believe, and for good reason, that it is foolish to try to predict the end of a long term trend. Short term trends maybe, but strong, smooth long term trends tend to go much much longer than any reasonable person could possibly guess. That's why they keep going. Price always fails at previous levels, at least temporarily. That's what gets so many people out of good trends. If price never stopped or paused or pulled back, well gee, trend following would be easy and fun for everyone.

Prediction

Predicting the market is a waste of time; and here’s why. Market is market and it will do what it has to do. It does not care about anyone…. Most of the people predicting about the market are only engaged in educated guesses… I can also indulge in guesswork but the fact is - I don’t “know” what markets are going to do in the future. Some may ask, How can you be in this business and not know what markets are going to do? Well, trading business has nothing to do with prediction. It is more a skill on how to navigate markets than knowing the map of the market. A great quote from George Soros: “The financial markets generally are unpredictable. So that one has to have different scenarios… The idea that you can actually predict what’s going to happen contradicts my way of looking at the market…” The action approach should be - Don’t think about what the market’s going to do; you have absolutely no control over that. Instead, think about what you’re going to do if market does anything what you have envisaged or visualized. What every traders needs to understand?
1. There is a huge difference between trading correctly and making an accurate market prediction
2. In the final analysis, predicting the market is not what’s important. What is important is using sound trading practices
3. And if sound trading habits are all that is important, there is no reason to try to predict the markets in the first place
4. It is the discipline that keeps one in the market for long time and not the forecast ability.
When one predicts - one searches for that market behavior; and if market starts behaving otherwise - one gets angry and starts fighting the market. That’s why - one should have an open mindset towards market behavior and not trapped in prism of one’s prediction. There is a famous saying which also sums up the attitude one should have towards the market - I have no idea what the market will do, but that is ok and I will play whatever comes my way.

True Consistency

Very few people make money trading. This is the unfortunate truth. That's not to say every dog doesn't have his day, but to find truly consistent traders, day in and day out, week in and week out, month in and month out, year in and year out, is very difficult. Everyone has a strategy, everyone has an edge, everyone thinks they are super smart, everyone thinks they know how to manage risk, etc. But trading starts with character. Very few people have it. You should be more interested in what a trader's genetic makeup is rather then hearing about his automated system. In this business there is very little character or integrity if any. Everyone wants the money and they want it at someone else's expense.

There is a quote from the movie "Boiler Room": "I read this article a while back that said that Microsoft employs more millionaire secretary's that any other company in the world. They took stock options over Christmas bonuses. It was a good move. I remember there was this picture, of one of the groundskeepers next to his Ferrari. Blew my mind. You see shit like that, and it just plants seeds, makes you think it’s possible, even easy. And then you turn on the TV, and there's just more of it. The $87 million lottery winner, that kid actor that just made 20 million on his last movie, that internet stock that shot through the roof, you could have made millions if you had just gotten in early, and that's exactly what I wanted to do: get in. I didn't want to be an innovator any more, I just wanted to make the quick and easy buck, I just wanted in. Nobody wants to work for it anymore.” 

Our parents fought in wars, laid brick, laid track across the country, built our homes, our highways, laid the foundation for us so we could build nothing, create nothing, so we could hyper actively click a mouse button using someone else's money trying to create wealth. Most traders will end up flushing other people's money down the drain. They will ruin lives, break up families, some will turn to drugs or alcohol, and some will hit the seminar circuit or sell something. So you see there is no point in looking at track records. You should believe in personal character, in humility, in people that openly admit they know nothing about the world or the markets; they simply want to play the odds and make trades with favorable outcomes. They believe they can manage risk better than the other guy.

Another quote from the movie "The Big Kahuna": Devito asks the young kid if he believes he has character in which Devito tells the kid he believes he doesn't have any. Devito continues: "I'm saying you've already done plenty of things to regret, you just don't know what they are. It's when you discover them, when you see the folly in something you've done, and you wish that you had it do over, but you know you can't, because it's too late. So you pick that thing up, and carry it with you to remind you that life goes on, the world will spin without you, you really don't matter in the end. Then you will gain character, because honesty will reach out from inside and tattoo itself across your face."

Another great quote from the film "Match Point": "The man who said 'I'd rather be lucky than good; saw deeply into life. People are afraid to face how great a part of life is dependent on luck. It's scary to think so much is out of one's control. There are moments in a match when the ball hits the top of the net and for a split second it can either go forward or fall back. With a little luck, it goes forward and you win…or maybe it doesn’t, and you lose.”

Sharpe Ratio

The one advantage you have to buying a fund that appears on paper to have really bad numbers is that; one, you know to expect large draw downs, and therefore there is no surprise factor. Two, the fund manager is also aware of the risk and hits his fund has taken, and if he is still around and his fund is still active, then he clearly has the temperament to withstand the losses. When traders are making money, all is well and they are executing their plan whatever the plan and strategy is. What you don't know, is how a trader will handle himself when he is under heat. When he is sitting on large losses, when things are starting to happen that he never dreamed of happening. Now, how does he handle that, what decisions does he make. Does he double up in anger, does he keep averaging down, and does he throw all his risk parameters out the window in panic to quickly try to make his money back? This is the kind of stuff that doesn't show up on the sheets or the performance reports. This is the kind of stuff investors only find out about AFTER the fact. Sharpe Ratios will reveal nothing about this. Neither will max drawdown figures. So the advantage of going with a fund that has a large drawdown is again, the fact that the manager was able to recover from the heat he had to take. A fund manager that has not had a large drawdown (yet), has not revealed how he will act under those same circumstances. In another words, it will be a surprise! Sharpe Ratio can only be effective if used as a relative measure of risk. It tells you nothing about the truly hidden risks of the fund.

Fooled By Randomness

Nassim Taleb's "Fooled By Randomness" book is very interesting. It forces us to look beyond our own reflection in the mirror and instead think about what our reflection could look like in a different time and under different circumstances. Many of us are scared to really admit, that luck plays a much larger factor in our lives then we care to admit, especially with trading. Because with luck as a variable, we have to come to terms with the fact that we do not have as much control as think we do, it's really quite scary if you think about it.

Wealth Can Neither Be Created Nor Be Destroyed

Wealth is transferred, not destroyed. Money supply is not affected by gyrations in the market; it simply shifts capital from one party to another. Think about it, every transaction has a buyer and a seller. The buyer transfers capital to the seller. When someone sells a stock, the money does not travel into a black hole and disappear. It goes into someone's bank account. Let's use futures as an example. I buy an sp 500 futures contract at 1700. You are short this contract. No matter which way the market goes, up or down, and by whatever magnitude, the net effect of our wealth as an aggregate stays the same. Say the sp drops 5 pts. My account is marked at 1695. I am down 250 dollars. You account is marked at 1695, you are up 250 dollars. The sum of our wealth will always equal zero (250-250=0). My loss is your gain. If the sp dropped 500 pts. My account is marked down 500, yours is marked up 500. The change is always zero.
Now let's use GOOG as an example. GOOG goes public at $50 a share. Ten million shares are sold to the public at $50 a share. Let's say the public is one guy named John Smith. John Smith is the proud owner of 500 million dollars worth of GOOG stock. Where does that money go? Well, some of that money goes to the underwriters in fees. Some of that money goes to the brokers in the form of commissions. The rest of that money goes to GOOG. That's right, GOOG get's 500 million minus the fees. So now let's say GOOG stock goes to zero.

What happens? Well, John Smith is out 500 million dollars. But GOOG has that money now. The money never disappeared. It went to GOOG. What did GOOG do with it? They invested the money into technology. Say they put all the money into an algorithm company to develop some technology. Now what did they do with that money? They used that money to pay their employees. Where does that money go now? They used it to buy their wives a new car. Now the car company uses that money to pay their employees. And on and on we go. The money never disappears; it simply gets transferred to another party. Now if the stock goes from 50 dollars to 100 dollars does John Smith gain anything? No. Someone has to buy the stock. Let's say the next day you come in to buy some GOOG and the current offer is $100. Now, the gain John Smith has on paper comes at your expense. You paid $100 for the stock. The only way John Smith can realize his gain is if you transfer your wealth to him. Say he sells you all his stock. The money he is walking away with came out of your pocket! It didn't just appear out of the blue. Now if GOOG goes to zero now, the net effect of all the aggregate dollars is still 0. You are out 1 billion dollars. John Smith made 500 million and GOOG made 500 million. The net effect is ZERO! It's the same thing with homeowners. If your house has doubled in value, the gains are all on paper until you sell the house. Think about it. If the stock gaps to 100 and no trades take place, how can you say what you are worth? It's all a paper gain.

Bill Gates and many others net worth are tied to their assets. All their assets. These assets fluctuate in value every day. Gates’ net worth fluctuates every day with the price of MSFT stock. In 2000, there were many young geeks worth millions on paper. Many of them never realized those gains. Their stocks went to zero and were no longer worth millions. The problem becomes exasperated when people start to borrow against their inflated assets be it stocks or their homes. Again, money is transferred here in the form of debt. Rest assured, the money is very real and someone is on the hook for that. Again, this is not mathematically possible. The only way it could happen is if the Federal Government was actually creating currency to buy stock from you. In that example, money is being created. But when stock prices go higher, someone is buying that stock. Your net worth is increasing at the expense of the buyer who is relieving you of your stock. Yes, you are getting wealthier, but at the expense of the new buyer who now owns your stock! Wealth effect is worthless. Your wealth on paper will fluctuate daily. Your actual wealth is only realized when a transaction has occurred. Again, what people really think they are worth is irrelevant. It doesn't matter where the exits are and who can get what price. When they sell, someone else's wealth is being transferred to them. It's as simple as that.

Expectancy

Expectancy is the probability of profit less the probability of loss. If you make $1.00 on ten trades and lose $2.00 on 5 trades you have zero expectancy. $1*10/15- $2*5/15 = 0. Increase your average win to $1.01 and you have achieved positive expectancy. 1.01*10/15-2*5/15 = .007 and so on. In any trading environment the actions of buyers and sellers drive the price of an asset to "fair value" at any and every point in time. Fair value = mid-point between the bid/ask spread = zero expectancy. Why are options a negative expectancy game for any retail trader? Because of slippage (the difference between bid/ask spreads) and commissions. How much is this negative expectancy? Let's assume that the average option price is $4.00. The market for that option is likely to be 3.90 bid/4.10 asked. For a retail customer to buy that "$4.00 option" he has to pay some market maker for the privilege of ownership. Let's say that on average you can shave a nickel off the B/A so that means on a round turn your cost is $0.10 in addition to the fair value. Add another penny in commissions and your net cost is $0.12. That leaves (4.00-.12)/4.00 as the probable payback on the trade. Or 97% payback. That's about the same odds offered by casino blackjack. Every option trade is therefore a negative expectancy event. So how does anyone facing these odds make any money?

A skilled trader has the ability to "alter the odds" so to speak by bringing individual options into combinations that, while on their own offer only negative expectancy, in combination they provide positive expectancy. It is in essence the TRADER'S skill that creates positive expectancy.
One way to maybe get a handle on how this operates is to "reverse engineer" a trade. When you buy a simple call and if you track the life of the value of that call from the moment you bought or sold it you can see in retrospect that there would have been several times that the trade would have been profitable or at worst a situation where it would have shown the least loss. Blindly or randomly entering and exiting trades will always result in the negative expectancy outlined above. But the skilled trader - through deep experience - learns to select those ripples in an option's history that either result in reduced losses or better than average gains. There are so many permutations and ways for these momentary positive expectancy events to occur. The bottom line though is that options, while at any moment are offered as zero or negative expectancy events, when you are in a position, the continuous changes to value mark opportunities to overcome the original negative expectancy. It's as if you have heads on a coin flip but somewhere just before it lands you can see that it is very likely to land tails. If this observation leads you to quickly withdraw most of your at-risk bet, then you have skewed the odds in your favor.

Trading As A Living

What we think and the reality of the situation are two completely different things. The best traders don't walk around like most of the people trying to pick tops and bottoms and pretend like they know where the Euro is going or where the nasdaq will close, they put on positions that are tradable. And then they trade. It's that simple. Best traders are wrong most of the time. So how do they make money? Well, when they realize they are wrong, they change their position. One of the best attributes a trader should have is humility. The best traders admit to knowing very little about what the market will do or don't pretend to have any kind of secret method or style or edge that others don't have. They just go in to work every day like a brick layer. Their goal is to lay bricks. One at a time. And hopefully at the end of their life they have built a solid foundation. That's all a trader can hope for. But most traders don't do this. They shoot from the hip, they are arrogant, they can read charts and lunar cycles, they have some kind of special pricing model they created, they think they know something the other guy doesn't, and they trade with way too much emotion. This is why maybe 5% of all traders make a living in this business.

Its A Duck

1. Never get into something you can’t get out by the closing bell. Every trade you make, you’re looking for the exit point. Always keep your eye on the exit point.
2. Don’t ever take anything at face value. Because face value is the biggest lie of any market. Nothing is ever priced at its true worth. The key is to figure out the real, intrinsic value and get it for much, much less.
3. On minute, you have your feet on the ground and you’re moving forward. The next minute, the ground is gone and you’re falling. The key is to never land. Keep it in the air as long as you can.
4. You walk into a room with a grenade, and your best-case scenario is walking back out still holding that grenade. Your worst-case scenario is that the grenade explodes, blowing you into little bloody pieces. The moral of the story: don’t make bets with no upside.
5. Don’t overthink. If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it’s a duck.
6. Fear is the greatest motivator. Motivation is what it takes to find profit.
7. The first place to look for a solution is within the problem itself.
8. The ends justify the means, but there’s only one end that really matters. Ending up on a beach with a bottle of champagne.

Supply & Demand

What drives price rises? On the demand side it is mainly low interest rates, low unemployment, rising incomes, increased migration, and expectations of future price appreciation. And on the supply side, new building is constrained by planning and zoning restrictions as well as the time it takes to build. The flaw in the picture though is those five words above, expectations of future price appreciation. In any asset market, whenever price appreciation becomes the main reason for people buying, the market is in danger of becoming a bubble. We must suspect a bubble if homeowners are regarding housing primarily as an investment, rather than as a place to live, and if investors are paying little attention to rental yields and are focused mostly on capital gains.

Trading Systems

Use your creativity. There are a million ways to build a technical trading system. At the end of the day, all technical systems are about two things and two things only. Getting you to pull the trigger to get in a trade and getting you to get out when you are wrong. If your levels and parameters serve that function, then you are shooting well over par.